Tuesday, June 9, 2009

PSMJ Quarterly Economic Forecast Shows Improvement, But Not Positive

PSMJ's expert management consultants are only one week into gathering the numbers for the second quarter PSMJ Quarterly Economic Forecast and here's what they've found thus far:

With almost 300 participants thus far, while the numbers may change a bit, it's unlikely the trends will reverse.

The data is much better, but still not really positive. In general, negatives are less negative, and small upward trends are now much more positive.

Overall revenues quarter over quarter are still negative but less so.

Revenue projections for the coming quarter have turned slightly positive.

Backlog levels are still turning down, but not as much so.

Proposal activity overall is much better, and is at a level that will sustain backlogs and revenues as proposals turn into projects.

The moving up markets include transportation, energy/utilities, environmental, water/wastewater. They are all more positive than last quarter (can we say stimulus?)

The markets that were virtually flat last quarter, health care, government buildings and education have improved to a decent positive level (stimulus again).

Of the negative markets, only heavy industry showed relatively strong improvement, even though it is still negative. Commercial users did rebound a bit, but is still very negative.

Light industry, commercial development and housing are still well in the tank, and even tough the rate of decline is less than last quarter, it is still a deep decline. (Is it possible that the decline in housing could actually go below zero new housing units?)

All in all, much better than last quarter, but still not sunny days are here again territory.

For more information on PSMJ's Quarterly Economic Forecast data, check out the July 14 webinar A/E/C Industry Trends: How are the trends impacting your firm?

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