With a recorded score of 52.0 for the month of December, the
American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings finished up its
strongest year since 2007. While the pace of billings growth slowed slightly
from November, it is still the fifth consecutive month of growth, which means
eight months of 2012 showed improving business conditions, the most over five
years. Inquiries into new projects remained strong, and firm backlogs for the
fourth quarter inched up slightly from the third quarter to an average of 4.5
months.
The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) serves as the leading economic
indicator of construction activity, and reflects the approximate 9-12 month lag
time between architecture billings, and actual construction spending. The
monthly ABI scores are centered around 50, with scores above 50 indicating an
aggregate increase in billings, and scores below 50 indicating a decline.
Business conditions continued to improve at firms in all
regions of the country in December with the exception of firms in the West,
which continued to struggle to recover from nearly five years of declining
billings. Firms located in the Midwest reported particularly strong firm billings
last month after suffering a period of softness in the middle of the year. And
for the third consecutive month, firms of all specializations reported
experiencing increasing firm billings. The pace of growth has slowed
significantly from the middle of the year for firms with a residential
specialization, but continues to improve for firms with a commercial/industrial
specialization.
Employment, economic activity on the rise
The general economy continues to show improvement as well,
with the latest issue of the Federal Reserve Beige Book (released Jan. 16)
reporting that economic activity expanded in all districts during the previous
month and a half. Consumer spending continues to increase, and even the
districts affected by Hurricane Sandy have since rebounded.
Existing residential real estate activity also increased in
all districts, and those districts that had unused housing inventory reported
it to be declining. However, nonresidential construction is slightly weaker
than residential construction, with the Boston district seeing weakening demand
for commercial real estate loans. The Dallas district, on the other hand,
anticipates an upturn in commercial real estate construction in 2013. And
according to the Department of Labor, employment also improved in December,
with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 155,000. Construction employment increased
by 30,000, led in part by an increase of 13,000 employees in the construction
of buildings sector. In addition, architectural services employment ticked up
modestly to 157,100 in November, the most current data available.
Improving conditions spur speculative residential
development
This month, the AIA asked survey panelists about the current
demand for speculative projects (developer-sponsored projects without firm
commitments for tenants), and how that’s changed recently in the last few
years. Just over one quarter of respondents (28%) reported that they’re seeing
more speculative projects now, while slightly fewer (26%) reported a decrease. The
remainder reported no change. Firms located in the Midwest and West regions
were most likely to report seeing more of these projects as were large firms,
with 44% of firms with annual billings greater than $5 million reporting more
speculative projects now. More firms with a residential specialization reported
an uptick in these projects than firms with other specializations.
Of firms that have seen an increase in speculative projects,
the most commonly cited reason was the improvement in the overall economic
outlook (62% of respondents), followed by the pent-up demand for facilities (54%).
Residential rental units are the speculative project increasing the most at
present, followed by residential/commercial mixed-use projects and single-family
residential/condos.
Statistics:
By region, the ABI
breaks down as follows from November to December: Midwest is up 55.7 from 54.4,
Northeast is down 53.1 from 56.3, South is up 51.2 from 51.1, and the West remained
the same at 49.6.
By market sector:
Residential is down 50.5 from 55.9, Institutional is up 50.9 from 50.5 and
Commercial/Industrial is up 53.4 from 52.0.
This month, Work on
the Boards participants are saying:
• December provided some new projects which
increased our backlog out at least six months. This is the best backlog we have
seen since 2008.
—42-person firm in the Midwest,
institutional specialization
•
Contractors are getting more small jobs, but
many are very budget-oriented, and are not involving architects.
—3-person firm in the West, residential
specialization
•
Much of the work that made 2012 so strong may
not be readily repeated in 2013. Business development will be a renewed focus.
—23-person firm in the South, commercial/industrial
specialization
•
Work has substantially increased over the last
12 months, with strong markets including medical research, utilities, and
state-funded projects. However, reduced state revenue suggests fewer new
projects next year.
—120-person firm in the Northeast,
institutional specialization
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